WEO-2010 projects global energy production and consumption out to 2035. Here are some of the highlights [my emphases, D.R.] of the IEA report/forecast:
- Oil production becomes less crude - Global oil production reaches 96 mb/d in 2035 on the back of rising output of natural gas liquids & unconventional oil, as crude oil production plateaus.
- More oil from fewer producers - Production rises most in Saudi Arabia & Iraq, helping to push OPEC's market share from 41% today to 52% by 2035, a level last seen prior to the first oil shock of 1973-1974.
- Caspian energy riches could enhance global energy security - Kazakhstan drives an increase in Caspian oil production to 5.2 mb/d by 2035, while Turkmenistan & Azerbaijan push up gas production to over 310 bcm.
- International oil price assumptions - The age of cheap oil is over, though policy action could bring lower international prices than would otherwise be the case. More